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Big Move Coming!
Stock Market At Major Inflection Point In our August 7, 2023 Market Update, Stock Market Weakness Likely, I mentioned the market was at the top of its uptrending channel and was likely to correct to the lower half of that channel. Here we are two months later...
Momentum Turns Positive
Stock Market Breakout In my August 4th update, Stock Market Weakness Likely, I pointed out that the market was likely to pullback, and as long as that weakness did not decisively violate the lower end of its uptrending channel, the market's longer-term...
Stock Market Weakness Likely
Stock Market Weakness Likely in the Near-Term As mentioned in our last update, Technology Getting Tired, the stock market reached a level where I expect major market indexes to pullback. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the upper panel...
Technology Getting Tired
Sector Rotation Technology Starting to Look Weak One of the hallmarks of a bull market is sector rotation. I am sending out this update because we are starting to see the early signs of money moving out of technology, which has led this year's market...
Mostly Sunny With a Chance of Thunderstorms
The S&P 500 The stock market has continued to build on last month's positive technical improvements. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Index and here are my takeaways. The index has advanced above its downtrend line (red line). The index is in a...
Market Internals Improve
The S&P 500 The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates as a means to manage inflation by reducing overall demand in the economy. This strategy is intended to stabilize economic conditions. However, there is a concern that such actions...
Stock Market Not As Strong As You May Think
The Economy The Fed is raising rates in hopes of taming inflation by reducing demand. When the Fed eventually reverses course and begins to lower rates, it will be accompanied by a weak economy (probably a recession). Historically, the stock market doesn’t...
Market Rises on Weak Internals
S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is a chart of the S&P 500 in the upper panel and the MACD (momentum indicator) in the lower panel. Here are my takeaways. Momentum has turned positive. The S&P 500 Index has advanced strongly above its 200-day moving...
Market Risk Returns
The market drop over the last two days was significant and I now view short-term risk to be elevated. The S&P 500 index has fallen below the uptrend line that I highlighted in my March Newsletter and is now below its 200-day moving average. This moving...
Stock Market Still Bullish
The stock market is still bullish despite February's pullback. What I wrote in last month's newsletter still applies: "the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year. Here is a rundown of the positive developments that have occurred recently:...