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Signs of a Tradable Rally Starting to Emerge

Signs of a Tradable Rally Starting to Emerge

I am seeing signs that the stock market could be entering a period of short-term strength within a longer-term downtrend. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the top panel and the MACD ( a momentum indicator) in the bottom panel. Notice how the MACD is...

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That’s A Wrap

That’s A Wrap

  2022 is a wrap. Below are the returns for the calendar year. 2022 Major Equity Index Returns: Dow Jones Industrials Index -8% S&P 500 Index -19% Nasdaq 100 Index -32% 2022 Bond ETF Returns: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) -31% iShares Core U.S....

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When The Levee Breaks

When The Levee Breaks

  Bear market rallies tend to give people hope, only to dash those hopes with the next move lower. It can be emotionally and financially draining. The recent advance off the October lows showed none of the signs that would suggest a longer-term bottom. So, a reversal...

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Danger Zone

Danger Zone

  The Economy   The Fed is raising rates in hopes of taming inflation by reducing demand. Every bear market advance this year is propelled by investors' expectation that the Fed will pivot. And each advance gets squashed when the Fed reiterates its hawkish...

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Early Warning – Topping Signals

Early Warning – Topping Signals

  The stock market is at a short-term inflection point. The advance off the October lows has been indecisive and has lost momentum right under resistance (200-day moving average). This would be a logical area for the market to reverse course and head lower. On...

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The Tide Has Turned

The Tide Has Turned

  Market Technicals Turn Positive We usually publish our monthly updates on the first Monday of the month. This month I am sending it out a week early due to positive developments in the stock market. Bottom Line: Improvement in market technicals suggest a...

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Buckle Up – Market Volatility Likely To Increase

Buckle Up – Market Volatility Likely To Increase

Bond Market Dislocation - A Tight Fed - And Falling Stock Prices   The pervading theme amongst many notable macroeconomic experts is that the continued dislocation in the bond market (too many sellers of bonds and not enough buyers) which has resulted in rising...

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Market Hanging By A Thread

Market Hanging By A Thread

Below is a daily chart of the S&P 500 index. Here are the major takeaways: The index is below its 200-day moving average and that average is falling. This is characteristic of a bearish longer-term market environment. After advancing above resistance, the index...

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Coiled Spring

Coiled Spring

The market is in a short-term advance within a longer-term decline. The question is. Has the market bottomed and is this the beginning of a longer-term move higher or is the advance a bear trap? The market is at an inflection point and a few of the indicators I will...

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Bears Firmly In Control

Bears Firmly In Control

S&P 500 Index   Below is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. Here are the critical aspects of the chart: The index is in a downtrend defined by a series of lower-highs and lower-lows. Price advances keep failing at resistance. Price is below its 50 and...

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