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Market Risk Returns
The market drop over the last two days was significant and I now view short-term risk to be elevated. The S&P 500 index has fallen below the uptrend line that I highlighted in my March Newsletter and is now below its 200-day moving average. This moving...
Stock Market Still Bullish
The stock market is still bullish despite February's pullback. What I wrote in last month's newsletter still applies: "the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year. Here is a rundown of the positive developments that have occurred recently:...
Making Hay While The Sun Shines
In our last market update, I wrote about how market technicals were improving. That improvement has continued and the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year. Here is a rundown of the positive developments that have occurred recently:...
Signs of a Tradable Rally Starting to Emerge
I am seeing signs that the stock market could be entering a period of short-term strength within a longer-term downtrend. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the top panel and the MACD ( a momentum indicator) in the bottom panel. Notice how the MACD is...
That’s A Wrap
2022 is a wrap. Below are the returns for the calendar year. 2022 Major Equity Index Returns: Dow Jones Industrials Index -8% S&P 500 Index -19% Nasdaq 100 Index -32% 2022 Bond ETF Returns: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) -31% iShares Core U.S....
When The Levee Breaks
Bear market rallies tend to give people hope, only to dash those hopes with the next move lower. It can be emotionally and financially draining. The recent advance off the October lows showed none of the signs that would suggest a longer-term bottom. So, a reversal...
Danger Zone
The Economy The Fed is raising rates in hopes of taming inflation by reducing demand. Every bear market advance this year is propelled by investors' expectation that the Fed will pivot. And each advance gets squashed when the Fed reiterates its hawkish...
Early Warning – Topping Signals
The stock market is at a short-term inflection point. The advance off the October lows has been indecisive and has lost momentum right under resistance (200-day moving average). This would be a logical area for the market to reverse course and head lower. On...
The Tide Has Turned
Market Technicals Turn Positive We usually publish our monthly updates on the first Monday of the month. This month I am sending it out a week early due to positive developments in the stock market. Bottom Line: Improvement in market technicals suggest a...
Buckle Up – Market Volatility Likely To Increase
Bond Market Dislocation - A Tight Fed - And Falling Stock Prices The pervading theme amongst many notable macroeconomic experts is that the continued dislocation in the bond market (too many sellers of bonds and not enough buyers) which has resulted in rising...