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Is The Pullback Over?

Is The Pullback Over?

Heading into April, the prevailing view was that the Fed would lower interest rates three times before year’s end. Typically, a strong economy and lower interest rates support a bullish stock market. However, April’s inflation data came in higher than expected, causing interest rates to rise and prompting investors to adjust their expectations. Consequently, the S&P 500 dropped by a little over 4%.

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Market Technicals Diverge From Market Consensus

Market Technicals Diverge From Market Consensus

When I wrote last month’s newsletter the S&P 500 was nearing the upper end of its uptrending channel, but was not there yet. Over the past month, major market indexes continued to run higher and the S&P 500 is now at the top of its uptrending channel (see chart below). This is an area in which I would expect some market weakness in the near term. Not a change in trend, just some type of short-term pullback.

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Cross Currents

Cross Currents

When I wrote last month’s newsletter the S&P 500 was nearing the upper end of its uptrending channel, but was not there yet. Over the past month, major market indexes continued to run higher and the S&P 500 is now at the top of its uptrending channel (see chart below). This is an area in which I would expect some market weakness in the near term. Not a change in trend, just some type of short-term pullback.

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Strong Price Action

Strong Price Action

The stock market is in a strong bullish environment.
Short-term the market is extended and nearing the upper end of its uptrending channel which is an area where it has pulled back in the past.
Market breadth has deteriorated over the past month which is an additional factor that suggests we could see a minor short-term correction in stocks in the near term.

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Breadth Thrust

Breadth Thrust

No market indicator is infallible. Because of this, I use a weight-of-the-evidence approach to formulating my market thesis.

Based on this approach, the market appears to be longer-term bullish; however, major market indexes are overbought and at major resistance.

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Bullish Breakout

Bullish Breakout

After reaching overbought levels and pulling back from August through October (declining orange channel in the chart below), the market has decisively broken out to the upside. The strength of the move suggests that the path of least resistance over the coming weeks and months is higher.

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Inflection Point

Inflection Point

Stock Market   As mentioned in our August 7th newsletter, Stock Market Weakness Likely, the market reached overbought levels and was due for a pullback. Below is the same chart that I presented in that update. I stated that the market was advancing within an...

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Big Move Coming!

Big Move Coming!

Stock Market At Major Inflection Point   In our August 7, 2023 Market Update, Stock Market Weakness Likely, I mentioned the market was at the top of its uptrending channel and was likely to correct to the lower half of that channel. Here we are two months later...

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Momentum Turns Positive

Momentum Turns Positive

Stock Market   Breakout   In my August 4th update, Stock Market Weakness Likely, I pointed out that the market was likely to pullback, and as long as that weakness did not decisively violate the lower end of its uptrending channel, the market's longer-term...

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Stock Market Weakness Likely

Stock Market Weakness Likely

Stock Market   Weakness Likely in the Near-Term   As mentioned in our last update, Technology Getting Tired, the stock market reached a level where I expect major market indexes to pullback. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the upper panel...

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