Early Warning – Topping Signals

Early Warning – Topping Signals

  The stock market is at a short-term inflection point. The advance off the October lows has been indecisive and has lost momentum right under resistance (200-day moving average). This would be a logical area for the market to reverse course and head lower. On...

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The Tide Has Turned

The Tide Has Turned

  Market Technicals Turn Positive We usually publish our monthly updates on the first Monday of the month. This month I am sending it out a week early due to positive developments in the stock market. Bottom Line: Improvement in market technicals suggest a...

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Buckle Up – Market Volatility Likely To Increase

Buckle Up – Market Volatility Likely To Increase

Bond Market Dislocation - A Tight Fed - And Falling Stock Prices   The pervading theme amongst many notable macroeconomic experts is that the continued dislocation in the bond market (too many sellers of bonds and not enough buyers) which has resulted in rising...

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Market Hanging By A Thread

Market Hanging By A Thread

Below is a daily chart of the S&P 500 index. Here are the major takeaways: The index is below its 200-day moving average and that average is falling. This is characteristic of a bearish longer-term market environment. After advancing above resistance, the index...

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Coiled Spring

Coiled Spring

The market is in a short-term advance within a longer-term decline. The question is. Has the market bottomed and is this the beginning of a longer-term move higher or is the advance a bear trap? The market is at an inflection point and a few of the indicators I will...

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Bears Firmly In Control

Bears Firmly In Control

S&P 500 Index   Below is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. Here are the critical aspects of the chart: The index is in a downtrend defined by a series of lower-highs and lower-lows. Price advances keep failing at resistance. Price is below its 50 and...

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Capitulation Common at Market Bottoms

Capitulation Common at Market Bottoms

  The S&P 500 Index is down over 22% (peak-to-trough). Unfortunately, the largest declines in equities have historically occurred as a result of recessions, and odds are high that we are going to be entering one soon. The bear markets of 2020 and 2008 both...

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Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Easy money policies by the Fed and excessive fiscal spending have placed the economy and thus markets in a position of weakness. Inflation is raging and the Fed is trying to reign it in as the economy is showing signs of slowing. The net result is that markets are...

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How Much Risk Are You Taking?

How Much Risk Are You Taking?

  I recently met with a friend who asked me to analyze his retirement account. His account is allocated similarly to most retirees which is 60% invested in stocks and 40% in bonds. He uses a passive buy-and-hold strategy. I took his allocation and backtested it...

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