The S&P 500 The stock market has continued to build on last month's positive technical improvements. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Index and here are my takeaways. The index has advanced above its downtrend line (red line). The index is in a...
Market Internals Improve
The S&P 500 The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates as a means to manage inflation by reducing overall demand in the economy. This strategy is intended to stabilize economic conditions. However, there is a concern that such actions...
Stock Market Not As Strong As You May Think
The Economy The Fed is raising rates in hopes of taming inflation by reducing demand. When the Fed eventually reverses course and begins to lower rates, it will be accompanied by a weak economy (probably a recession). Historically, the stock market doesn’t...
Market Rises on Weak Internals
S&P 500 Daily Chart Below is a chart of the S&P 500 in the upper panel and the MACD (momentum indicator) in the lower panel. Here are my takeaways. Momentum has turned positive. The S&P 500 Index has advanced strongly above its 200-day moving...
Market Risk Returns
The market drop over the last two days was significant and I now view short-term risk to be elevated. The S&P 500 index has fallen below the uptrend line that I highlighted in my March Newsletter and is now below its 200-day moving average. This moving...
Stock Market Still Bullish
The stock market is still bullish despite February's pullback. What I wrote in last month's newsletter still applies: "the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year. Here is a rundown of the positive developments that have occurred recently:...
Making Hay While The Sun Shines
In our last market update, I wrote about how market technicals were improving. That improvement has continued and the market is displaying strength that we have not seen in over a year. Here is a rundown of the positive developments that have occurred recently:...
Signs of a Tradable Rally Starting to Emerge
I am seeing signs that the stock market could be entering a period of short-term strength within a longer-term downtrend. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the top panel and the MACD ( a momentum indicator) in the bottom panel. Notice how the MACD is...
That’s A Wrap
2022 is a wrap. Below are the returns for the calendar year. 2022 Major Equity Index Returns: Dow Jones Industrials Index -8% S&P 500 Index -19% Nasdaq 100 Index -32% 2022 Bond ETF Returns: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) -31% iShares Core U.S....
When The Levee Breaks
Bear market rallies tend to give people hope, only to dash those hopes with the next move lower. It can be emotionally and financially draining. The recent advance off the October lows showed none of the signs that would suggest a longer-term bottom. So, a reversal...