Economic Head Fake Bond Yield and Commodity Breakout Fails In last month’s newsletter, I highlighted two main points. One, the market was in an uptrend; however, overbought and due for some type of pullback/correction. Two, commodities and...
Category - Monthly Newsletter
Stock Market and Account Update – January 6, 2020
Long-Term Stock Market Summary Below is a monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (middle panel) going back over 20 years. In the top panel is the momentum indicator RSI and in the lower panel is the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) which is another...
Stocks Break Out and Internals Suggest Caution
Long-Term Stock Market Summary On October 28, 2019, the S&P 500 advanced to new all-time highs and above an area of major resistance. This is bullish price action. Prior to that break to new highs, the stock market had been volatile and...
Divergences Persist
Stock Market Indexes The S&P 500 Index is in an uptrend as defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. Today’s close puts the index slightly above the notated uptrend line and at an all-time high. Over the past two years, each...
Market Sitting Precariously on a Ledge
I publish our comprehensive monthly market update on the first Monday of each month. In last month’s update I highlighted the reasons for my bearish market thesis which I base on many longer-term negative divergences that continue to build...
House of Cards
I began to turn bearish the broad stock market June 2019 as noted in our June 24, 2019 Market Update: Stock Market Walking a Tightrope. The stock market is still technically in an uptrend that started in January 2019; however, that doesn’t...
Stock Market Risk Elevated
Market Update As mentioned in my June 24, 2019 market update: Stock Market Walking a Tightrope, the stock market had many longer-term negative divergences that I felt increased market risk over the intermediate-term. I indicated that these...
Stock Selection, Entries and Management
We are switching things up this month. We published a comprehensive market update last week so there is no need to repeat ourselves. So this month I briefly restate our current market thesis and spend most of the time explaining how we manage our...
Tweets, Tariffs and Technicals
Market Update The stock market has pulled back over the last month based on the realization that the trade war is not going to be ending any time soon. The effect of tariffs is that they provide an additional headwind for an economy that is...
Short and Long-Term Market Forecast
Market Update I would like to start our May newsletter with a brief explanation of how I analyze markets. Then share with you what that analysis is suggesting about the current market environment. If you are not interested in our process and just...